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In times of financial uncertainty and crisis, high stress reactions lead to traders becoming more risk averse, which drives pessimism and further falls in finance, according to a new study. This is because of high levels of the “stress hormone”, cortisol, in bankers.
We all take risks, but in the financial sector the stakes are even higher – decisions and actions can influence market stability, economic growth and the fortune and woes of nations. And the new study , published in PNAS, helps us understand the physiological nuts and bolts of risk taking among traders.
When we’re stressed higher levels of cortisol are secreted into the blood stream. The body responds with a number of stress-related changes including increased heart rate and arousal, heightened memory and lower pain sensitivity. But it can also impair cognitive function, increase blood pressure and affect how we approach risk.
Emotional finance The researchers observed how a placebo or high levels of cortisol similar to that experienced by traders affected how risk prone or averse a group of 36 volunteers became over an eight-day period (a previous study in 2008 suggested that market volatility over an eight-day period could increase average e cigarette daily cortisol levels in traders by 68%). They were then given computerised tasks that involved choosing to playing a lottery that offered the certainty of a monetary return – a high chance of winning £30 or a lower chance of winning £90 – or a lottery with a higher chance of winning £90 but also some chance of receiving £0. The researchers found that higher and longer exposure to the hormone led more participants to opt for the less risky first choice.
This is important because it suggests that in continually stressful situations – such as a financial crisis – traders will tend to take less risky positions. When many traders do this all it once, it means they will dump the high or moderate e cigarette risk assets (such as equities or complex derivatives) they coveted during the good times, and seek out lower risk “vanilla” assets (such as government bonds). This kind of herding instinct will further depress the price of more risky assets, accelerating the bursting of the bubble. All because of a hormone in our body.
The results of this study might lead some banks and policy makers e cigarette to jump to the conclusion that if they can control traders' hormones, then they could deal with boom and bust cycles. This would be to over-reach the conclusions e cigarette of the study. Cortisol isn’t the whole story; there are many other studies of trader’s risk preferences which show that they are affected by things like emotion , cognitive perspective , personality and the amount of sleep traders have.
Over three decades, research in behavioral economics has also alerted us to how our risk preferences tend to be quite different depending on how an issue is framed . For instance, if a situation is described as “gambling” or “insurance” it results in very different behavior to those working in that situation. Similarly, if losses are emphasized (rather than gains), then people also tend to behave in different ways.
One particularly interesting recent study looked at the impact of the way ethics policies were framed impacted on risk taking. It found that if you played up the positive benefits e cigarette of ethics, then people were more like
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